Highlights
The manufacturing sector in April may be showing signs of life as durable goods orders made an unexpected comeback. Durable goods orders rebounded 1.9 percent in April, following a revised 2.1 percent drop in March. The decline for March originally had been estimated to be 0.8 percent. The April percentage increase was well above the consensus forecast for no change but the downward revision to March left new orders below expected levels for April. Excluding the transportation component, new durables orders gained 0.8 percent after declining 2.7 percent the month before.

The rebound in new orders was broad-based but was led by communication equipment, up 6.9 percent, and transportation, up 5.4 percent. Also making gains were fabricated metals, machinery, primary metals, electrical equipment, and "other" durables. The only major industry group to fall in April was computers & electronics which fell 2.7 percent.

Companies still appear to be in a mood to cut back on capital spending as new orders for nondefense capital goods fell 2.0 percent after slipping 0.9 percent in March.

Year-on-year, overall new orders for durable goods edged up to down 24.4 percent in April from down 26.5 percent the previous month. Excluding transportation, new durables orders slipped to down 23.3 percent from down 22.4 percent in March. Nondefense capital goods orders were down 32.8 percent on a year-ago basis, compared to having fallen 33.1 percent the month before.

The latest news on durables orders typically would be a positive for equities based just on the April numbers which included widespread gains. The problem, however, is that March orders were revised down sharply, basically leaving new orders slightly below the level expected by the markets ahead of the release. Bonds remain under pressure from concerns about over supply from the Treasury.

Market Consensus before announcement
Durable goods orders in March fell back 0.8 percent after a 1.6 percent rebound in February. Excluding the transportation component, new orders decreased 0.7 percent in March, after advancing 1.4 percent the prior month. Looking ahead, durables orders may continue to decline in April, based on more recent manufacturing surveys. The ISM, Philly Fed, and New York Fed manufacturing surveys for April all showed new orders indexes in negative territory.

2009 Release Schedule

Released On: 1/29 2/26 3/25 4/24 5/28 6/24 7/29 8/26 9/25 10/28 11/25 12/24 Release For: Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov