Highlights
For a second week, Redbook is reporting extreme weakness in chain-store sales, weakness that is not explained by year-ago comparison problems with 2008 tax rebates. Redbook reports a giant 4.8 percent year-on-year decline for same-store sales in the June 13 week compared to the year-ago week. Month-to-date, Redbook reports an unrealistic 4.5 percent decline compared to May -- that would signal one of the great retail sales collapses ever. Year-on-year stimulus comparisons also hurt this past May, not just this month: the month-to-month comparison effect of stimulus checks for this May and this June is limited. One factor that may explain the plunge is the removal of Wal-Mart from Redbook's sample, a necessity given Wal-Mart's data blackout. Redbook's text, like last week, is mild, citing a shift in Father's Day for the week's weakness -- a shift that will not be at play in Redbook's month-to-month estimate in next week's report (which will be very interesting to read). In any case, the bottom line, supported by other weekly retail sales reports to a more limited extent, is that June is shaping up to be a big disappointment.