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Jobless Claims
Released on 9/3/2009 8:30:00 AM For wk8/29, 2009
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
New Claims - Level570 K562 K555 K to 575 K570 K
4-week Moving Average - Level566.25 K571.25 K

Highlights
There has been very little change in initial jobless claims over the past seven weeks, pointing to little change in payroll losses for tomorrow's monthly employment report. Initial claims fell 4,000 to 570,000 in the Aug. 29 week (prior week revised 4,000 higher to 574,000). The four-week average is right at the current week, at 571,250. Continuing claims have been generally moving lower since early July, unfortunately reflecting the expiration of benefits and not necessarily new hiring. But in a bad sign, continuing claims rose in data for the Aug. 22 week, up 92,000 to 6.234 million. The unemployment rate for insured workers rose 1 tenth to 4.7 percent. There was no significant reaction to the report.

Market Consensus Before Announcement
Initial jobless claims fell 10,000 in the August 22 week to 570,000. There were no special factors in the week. The four-week average was steady at 566,250. Continuing claims fell 119,000 to 6.133 million.

Definition
New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart] Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 

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