Highlights
June's payroll data are a disappointment but not jobless claims data which do show weekly and monthly improvement. Initial claims totaled 614,000 in the June 27 week, down 16,000 from the prior week for a 615,250 four-week average that's down nearly 17,000 from May's average. Continuing claims for the June 20 week totaled 6.702 million, down 53,000 from the prior week for a four-week average of 6.752 million which is a bit below where it was at the end of May. Stocks were retreating this morning as were commodities in reaction to the monthly employment data. But next week focus will return to this report and whether improvement in initial claims is extending into this month.

Market Consensus Before Announcement
Initial jobless claims rose for a second straight week, up 15,000 in the June 20 week to a higher-than-expected 627,000. The Labor Department noted the latest week included unexpected claims from the educational services sector, a sector that often shows seasonal variability at the end of the school year. Continuing claims, after finally breaking a six month streak of week-to-week increases in last week's report, were unable to show a second week of improvement, up 29,000 in the June 13 week to 6.738 million. Looking ahead, we could see a downtick in claims related to educational services, pulling down overall initial claims.