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POWERED BY
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| Jobless Claims |
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Released on 3/19/2009 8:30:00 AM For wk3/14, 2009
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Prior | Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual |
| 4-week Moving Average - Level | 650 K | | | 654.75 K | | New Claims - Level | 654 K | 654 K | 625 K to 690 K | 646 K |
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Highlights
The number of unemployed keep rising. Continuing jobless claims for the March 7 week rose a very steep 185,000 to a record 5.473 million. It's taking longer and longer for the jobless to find work. Initial claims for the March 14 week did fall back 12,000 but remain at a severely high 646,000 for a four-week average of 654,750 (previous week revised up 4,000 to 658,000). Initial claims as well as the insured employment rate, at 4.1 percent, are the highest since the early 80s. There were no special factors skewing any of the data. Markets, fully expecting the overall unemployment rate to continue to rise to at least 9 percent, showed no reaction to today's report.
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Market Consensus Before Announcement
Initial jobless claims for the March 7 week rose 9,000 to 654,000 from 645,000 in the prior week. The level of claims has been steady for six weeks as reflected in the four-week average which is at 650,000. Continuing claims pose the worst news, jumping 193,000 in data for the February 28 week to a record 5.317 million. Rising for eight straight weeks, continuing claims indicate that it's taking more time for the jobless to find work.
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Definition
New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility.
Why Investors Care
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Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend.
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Data Source: Haver Analytics
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